Analysis: Tuesday is Therese Johaug's Day of Destiny

Therese Johaug finds herself at a critical juncture on New Year's Eve regarding the battle for the win in the Tour de Ski, as noted by journalist Atte Husu.

When the four-time Olympic champion and 14-time world champion Therese Johaug participates in the Tour de Ski, she automatically becomes one of the favorites to win the event.

Of her last four participations, three have ended in Johaug's celebrations. Since 2014, only her compatriot Marit Bjørgen has stayed ahead of Johaug when looking at the overall results atop the final ascent at Alpe Cermis. This occurred in 2015.

At that time, Bjørgen reached the final stage—an uphill race for the traditional finish—almost three minutes ahead of Johaug. Bjørgen ultimately lost the final ascent competition to Johaug by less than a minute.

Fast forward ten years, Johaug is, in many ways, a different skier than she was in 2015. After serving a doping ban from 2016 to 2018, she dominated the World Cup and won all nine of her individual championships from 2019 to 2022 before taking maternity leave.

This season, Johaug returned to international competitions and hinted in early December in Lillehammer that she still belongs to the absolute elite of women’s skiing.

Johaug won the 10-kilometer individual time trial and the 20-kilometer skiathlon in Lillehammer, finishing 42 seconds ahead of podium finishers Heidi Weng and Jessie Diggins.

However, in competitions held outside Norway, Johaug has been an ordinary competitor. On Sunday, she failed in her attempt to break away in the Tour de Ski's 15-kilometer mass start, finishing sixth in a race won by the USA's Jessie Diggins—losing by 4.6 seconds to Diggins.

No bonus seconds were awarded during the stage, so Johaug's gap from the leading two competitors, who won the first two stages, did not increase significantly from the results of the sprint that opened the tour. In that sprint, Johaug fell to 40th place, more than a minute and nine seconds behind Diggins.

After two stages, Jessie Diggins leads Therese Johaug by one minute and fourteen seconds.

The History of the Final Ascent

Sunday's race result was significant for Diggins, as it took place on her weaker style—the classic technique.

On Tuesday, in the 20-kilometer individual time trial, the skiing style will be free. This is the only trial in the tour where the most significant time gaps are expected to be established ahead of next Sunday’s final stage. Before that, there will still be a 15-kilometer pursuit (free), a 20-kilometer skiathlon, and a sprint, in which Johaug is likely to lag behind Diggins by approximately another minute.

Johaug and Diggins have faced each other on the final ascent of the Tour de Ski four times before, in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2020. Their most recent encounter on the final ascent was in a mass start format, while the previous ones were in pursuit formats.

In 2020, Johaug left Diggins almost two minutes behind during the last 3 kilometers. In this year’s tour, second-placed Kerttu Niskanen also trailed Johaug by over two minutes during the ascent in 2020.

In Diggins’ case, the 2020 loss is among the lower ends when comparing her past encounters on the final ascent. Niskanen, in turn, has previously been more than a minute behind Johaug on the ascent, specifically in 2015.

Norwegian coach Magnar Dalen** stated to Yle Sports that Diggins will need at least a minute and a half advantage going into the final stage to remain competitive against Johaug.

Norwegian coach Tor Arne Hetland also noted that the final stage will traditionally be favorable for Johaug, but he believes that if Diggins is in top condition, a thirty-second lead could suffice to beat Johaug.

A Leap into the Unknown

Tuesday’s 20-kilometer individual time trial will take place in entirely uncommon terrain. First, the skiers will face an uphill stretch of nearly 11 kilometers, followed by approximately 9 kilometers of downhill to the finish.

According to Finland’s head coach Teemu Pasanen, the skiers will need to push a vast portion uphill and may have to use their poles in the steepest sections. The downhill stretch will be handled gliding without poles and using the skating technique.

The initial segment is particularly suitable for Johaug, while the latter favors Diggins.

Pasanen predicted that of the two, Diggins will emerge as the winner from Tuesday’s challenge.

If this occurs, Johaug's task in the fight for victory in the Tour de Ski will become significantly more challenging. Tuesday is thus a fateful day for the Norwegian star.